Originally Posted by Hajo Flettner
Really? I suppose if think that a little thing called history and precedent doesn't count for much then I suppose you're right. I suppose that public statements of the the president, the secretary of health, the surgeon general, countless members of congress, endless add campaigns and public opinion polls don't say much one another on the matter after all. Likewise the stunning apathy among smokers here doesn't indicate much of anything either I suppose. I guess if I accept your standards of evidence I'd have to say that making an educated guess about what's coming is simply not possible. So much for empiricism.
Yes. Really. The best historical precedent if you want try and find something to what you're suggesting is the temperance movement. That was a very strong and politically charged movement, the legislation you've sighted thus far in no way reflects there being nearly the same amount of social or political backing.
Public statements by the president: If there's any precedent here, it's that you shouldn't expect so much from the president, or any politician for that matter.
The secretary of health and the surgeon general: The surgeon general also advocates healthy eating and living... America MUST be listening.
Endless ad campaigns: I don't know where you live, but I haven't seen these "ban tobacco ads" flavored or not. In fact, other than the amazingly well positioned Philip Morris funded Truth ads I haven't seen anything on TV about tobacco as of late.
Opinion poles: remember the two weeks when people really liked Sara Palin?
Empiricism: Like I said, citing context-free past anti-smoking legislation that passed does not in anyway build a case for your argument. If they're going to start chopping away at tobacco, there are virtually no precedents because even the temperance movement only succeeded under some very "right-time right-place" circumstances. In analysis terms, you'd be screwed for a regression model.
Now, to be perfectly fair, maybe you in fact know all the angles, maybe you're dumbing it down for our sake, maybe you're just not good at articulating it, but as it stands right now it's kinda bogus to talk down so much to the people who don't see this happening when their opinion is, as it would seem, no more or less viable than yours.